This is the first SMACC-Back for SMACCgold. The creator of the lecture that led to this was Simon Carley. Simon is a brilliant emergency physician and lecturer who practices at St. Emlyn’s. I can only imagine he was expecting this SMACC-Back as he all but threw his metal glove on the ground in front of me (all in good fun). Unfortunately, I was in another session during this lecture, but I’ve been eagerly awaiting it as many of the EMCritters came up to me afterwards to tell me about it.
My response will make no sense if you don’t listen to Simon’s talk first, so here it is. I advise watching the video, because I love watching the emotions flash across his face whenever he is lecturing–truly a captivating speaker.
Audio Only Version [right-click and choose save-as to download]
Also, please read the original post on St. Emlyn’s.
Technology Adoption Curves
Diffusion of innovations is a theory that seeks to explain how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread through cultures. Everett Rogers, a professor of communication studies, popularized the theory in his book Diffusion of Innovations; the book was first published in 1962, and is now in its fifth edition (2003). The book says that diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system. The origins of the diffusion of innovations theory are varied and span multiple disciplines. The book espouses the theory that there are four main elements that influence the spread of a new idea: the innovation, communication channels, time, and a social system. This process relies heavily on human capital. The innovation must be widely adopted in order to self-sustain. Within the rate of adoption, there is a point at which an innovation reaches critical mass. The categories of adopters are: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards (Rogers 1962, p. 150). Diffusion of Innovations manifests itself in different ways in various cultures and fields and is highly subject to the type of adopters and innovation-decision process.
The book posits that uptake is a bellshaped curve that looks like this:
Bayesian Approach to New Ideas
Anyone who looks at new evidence with tabula rasa is missing the point and is likely to get things wrong. Not only do we filter new evidences through out beliefs, we must do so. It is not irrational, it is essential-the process should be a willful and deliberate filtration of new information through your existing schema.
Simon responded to this SMACC-Back with a SMACC-Back-Back. Here it is:
— Simon Carley (@EMManchester) June 26, 2014